Monica Piccinini
30 October 2026
Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s latest electoral victory has been welcomed by environmental campaigners and political leaders around the world. After Jair Bolsonaro’s attacks on environmental institutions, Indigenous rights and the Amazon rainforest, the relief is understandable.
Lula’s return to power brought renewed promised to protect the forest and tackle climate change.
Brazil’s latest deforestation figures provide grounds for optimism. According to the national Institute of Space Research (INPE), deforestation in the Amazon fell by 41.8 per cent between August 2025 and July 2026, reaching 3,335 square kilometres, the lowest annual figure since monitoring began in 1988.
Environmental enforcement has also been strengthened. But Lula’s government continues to support oil exploration, mining and major infrastructure projects in environmentally sensitive regions.
Degradation
A forest doesn’t have to be cut down to be destroyed. Fires, drought and degradation can kill trees and release large quantities of carbon while leaving damaged forests still standing.
A study published in Biosciences in October 2025 estimated that fires degrading Amazon forests released 791 million tonnes of CO2 in 2024, exceeding the 625 million tonnes attributed to deforestation across the Pan-Amazon. Together, these sources accounted for approximately 1.42 billion tonnes of CO2. Brazil was responsible for around 61 per cent of the fire-related degradation emissions.
Trees continue dying, forests are becoming drier and fires become more likely. But Brazil’s 2024 National Inventory Report acknowledges that certain emissions from fires not resulting in land-use change are not fully accounted for.
Research lead by Brazilian scientists Luciana Gatti, published in Nature in October 2026, reinforces these concerns. Drawing on 15 years of atmospheric measurements, the study found that the Amazon was a net of carbon source, with fires dominating emissions and human disturbances amplified by several droughts.
These findings raise serious questions about celebrating falling deforestation rates while significant carbon losses from forest degradation continue.
Oil
In October 2025, Petrobras, Brazil’s national oil company, began drilling an exploratory well in the Foz do Amazonas basin, offshore from Amapá. Brazil’s Ministry of Mines and Energy welcomed the decision. And earlier that year, the National Petroleum Agency offered 172 oil and gas exploration blocks, awarding 34.
Lula’s government has defended oil exploration as necessary for employment, investment and energy security. An exploratory well doesn’t guarantee commercial production, but it creates the possibility of further extraction.
Brazil’s ongoing search for more oil reserves conflicts with its promises to fight climate change.
BR-319
Lula’s support to paving the BR-319, the controversial highway connecting Manaus to Porto Velho, predates his return to the presidency.
In May 2021, while out of office, he defended its paving as necessary for the regional development. He repeated his position in 2023, arguing that the road could be “rebuilt” with environmental safeguards.
His commitment continued in office. In May 2026, Lula visited the BR-319 works in Amazonas as the federal transport department authorised improvements to a 120.5-kilometre section. Four contracts were announced that year covered more than 339 kilometres of interventions, with investments exceeding R$1.45 billion.
For a long time, scientists have warned that rebuilding the highway could accelerate deforestation by encouraging land grabbing, logging, cattle ranching and secondary roads, including the AM-366.
The risks go beyond just forest clearing. Road fragment ecosystems, increase human access and make surrounding forests more vulnerable to degradation and fires.
Brazil’s environmental licensing legislation has added to this controversy. Lula vetoed 63 provisions of the so-called “devastation bill”, fully aware that Congress could overturn those. This is exactly what happened. Congress overturned 52 of those vetoes.
Meanwhile, his administration continues advancing the BR-319 works, maintaining that reconstruction could proceed with environmental safeguards.
Mining
Mining remains central to Brazil’s development strategy, including projects that have faced opposition from Indigenous communities and environmental organisations.
In Amazonas, Canadian mining company, Potássio do Brasil, is developing a major potash project in Autazes, an area traditionally occupied by the Mura people. Lula fully supports the project, promoting it with the intention to reduce Brazil’s dependence on imported fertilisers. The project has attracted the attention of federal mining authorities.
The project has divided Mura communities. Some representatives support the employment and opportunities it promises, but others fear the damage to their territory, water resources and traditional livelihoods.
Federal prosecutors have challenged the environmental licensing and consultation process, alleging violations of Indigenous rights.
In Pará, Canadian mining company, Belo Sun, Volta Grande gold mine’s proposal, near the Xingu River, has faced years of legal challenges and opposition from Indigenous communities. The project entered Brazil’s strategic minerals programme in 2021, during Bolsonaro’s presidency, and remains on the federal government’s list.
In October 2026, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court restored the suspension of the mine’s installation licence, following concerns about environmental impacts and consultation with potentially affected Indigenous communities.
These disputes reveal the difficulties communities face when challenging major extraction projects, regardless of changes in political leadership.
Bioeconomy
Lula’s government has promoted the Amazon bioeconomy with the intention of generating income while conserving the rainforest. The approach has attracted investment from development banks, corporations and international financial institutions interested in biodiversity, carbon markets and forest products.
These arrangements can give outside investors considerable influence over forest resources and traditional knowledge.
In some projects, Indigenous and traditional communities provide raw materials and expertise while companies and financial intermediaries retain greater control over processing, funding and international markets.
Oil, mining and agribusiness companies also contribute to conservation funds and restoration initiatives. These investments can improve corporate reputations while environmentally damaging activities continue elsewhere.
The growing evidence of forest degradation also raises concerns about whether conservation efforts should focus only on keeping trees standing, rather than protecting forest health and their ability to store carbon.
Indigenous rights
Bolsonaro’s administration weakened environmental institutions and protections for Indigenous peoples. His political movement remains a concern for environmental campaigners and Indigenous organisations.
Many Indigenous leaders supported Lula because they feared a return to his predecessor’s policies.
Political support, however, doesn’t amount to consent for individual development projects. Indigenous and traditional communities have the right to challenge mining, highways, industrial agriculture, cattle farming and oil and gas exploration affecting their territories, and to demand meaningful consultation before decisions are taken.
The role of journalism
International news coverage of Brazil has highlighted Lula’s environmental commitments, his speeches at climate conferences and the reduction in Amazon deforestation.
Environmental reporting should examine government decisions as closely as political promises. Improvement in forest protection deserve recognitions, but they should not overshadow policies that could undermine those achievements.
Falling deforestation shouldn’t be confused with the Amazon’s overall ecological health. Research on fires, degradation and carbon emissions demonstrates that forests can remain standing while losing biomass, biodiversity and their capacity to absorb carbon.
For decades, successive Brazilian governments have promised the roads, mining and agribusiness would bring prosperity to the Amazon. Today, similar promises are made through the language of sustainability, green investment and the bioeconomy.
Many of the same economic interests remain involved, while Indigenous peoples and traditional communities continue struggling for control over their territories and resources.
Journalists have the responsibility to investigate these interests, establish who benefits from development projects and report the consequences for affected communities.
Lula deserves recognition for reducing deforestation, but his administration must also be held accountable for its development policies and their consequences.
Protecting the Amazon requires more than encouraging deforestation statistics. It requires confronting forest degradation, fires, carbon emissions, alongside the economic activities threatening the rainforest.
It also requires independent journalism willing to scrutinise every government, including those that promise to defend it.
Featured image: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva celebrates his re-election following a historic comeback in the runoff, during a press conference at the InterContinental Hotel in Sao Paulo on Sunday evening, 25 October 2026. Credit: IMAGO / Andre Pera Sao Paulo Brasil Copyright: xAndrexPerax / Alamy.
